Source code for message_ix_models.model.transport.demand

"""Demand calculation for MESSAGEix-Transport."""

import logging
from typing import TYPE_CHECKING, Dict, List

import genno
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from dask.core import literal
from genno import Computer, KeySeq
from message_ix import make_df

from message_ix_models.util import broadcast

from . import files as exo
from .key import (
    cg,
    cost,
    fv,
    fv_cny,
    gdp,
    gdp_cap,
    gdp_index,
    gdp_ppp,
    ldv_cny,
    ldv_ny,
    ldv_nycg,
    ms,
    n,
    pdt_cap,
    pdt_cny,
    pdt_ny,
    pdt_nyt,
    pop,
    price,
    price_full,
    price_sel0,
    price_sel1,
    sw,
    t_modes,
    y,
)

if TYPE_CHECKING:
    from genno.types import AnyQuantity

log = logging.getLogger(__name__)


[docs]def dummy( commodities: List, nodes: List[str], y: List[int], config: dict ) -> Dict[str, pd.DataFrame]: """Dummy demands. Parameters ---------- info : .ScenarioInfo """ if not config["transport"].dummy_demand: # No dummy data → return nothing return dict() common = dict(level="useful", time="year", value=10 + np.arange(len(y)), year=y) dfs = [] for commodity in commodities: try: commodity.get_annotation(id="demand") except (AttributeError, KeyError): continue # Not a demand commodity unit = "t km" if "freight" in commodity.id else "km" dfs.append(make_df("demand", commodity=commodity.id, unit=unit, **common)) # # Dummy demand for light oil # common["level"] = "final" # dfs.append(make_df("demand", commodity="lightoil", **common)) return dict(demand=pd.concat(dfs).pipe(broadcast, node=nodes))
# Common positional args to as_message_df _demand_common = ( "demand", dict(commodity="c", node="n", year="y"), dict(level="useful", time="year"), ) #: Task for computing and adding demand data; inputs to :meth:`.Computer.add_queue`. TASKS = [ # Values based on configuration # Disabled for #551 # (("speed:t", "quantity_from_config", "config"), dict(name="speeds")), (("whour:", "quantity_from_config", "config"), dict(name="work_hours")), (("lambda:", "quantity_from_config", "config"), dict(name="lamda")), (("y::conv", "quantity_from_config", "config"), dict(name="year_convergence")), # Base passenger mode share (exogenous/reference data) (ms + "base", "base_shares", "mode share:n-t:exo", n, t_modes, y), # GDP expressed in PPP. The in the SSP(2024) input files, this conversion is already # applied, so no need to multiply by a mer_to_ppp factor here → simple alias. (gdp_ppp, gdp), # GDP PPP per capita (gdp_cap, "div", gdp_ppp, pop), # # Total PDT (n, y) = product of PDT / capita and population. See pdt_per_capita() # that sets up the calculation of `pdt_cap + "adj"` (pdt_ny, "mul", pdt_cap + "adj", pop), # Value-of-time multiplier # ("votm:n-y", "votm", gdp_cap + "adj"), # use the original GDP path for votm calculations ("votm:n-y", "votm", gdp_cap), # Select only the price of transport services # FIXME should be the full set of prices ((price_sel0, "select", price_full), dict(indexers=dict(c="transport"), drop=True)), (price_sel1, "price_units", price_sel0), # Smooth prices to avoid zig-zag in share projections (price, "smooth", price_sel1), # Interpolate speed data ( ("speed:scenario-n-t-y:0", "interpolate", exo.speed, "y::coords"), dict(kwargs=dict(fill_value="extrapolate")), ), # Select speed data ("speed:n-t-y", "select", "speed:scenario-n-t-y:0", "indexers:scenario"), # Cost of transport (n, t, y) (cost, "cost", price, gdp_cap, "whour:", "speed:n-t-y", "votm:n-y", y), # Share weights (n, t, y) ( sw, "share_weight", ms + "base", gdp_cap, cost, "lambda:", t_modes, y, "config", ), # Mode shares ((ms, "logit", cost, sw, "lambda:", y), dict(dim="t")), # Total PDT (n, t, y), with modes for the 't' dimension (pdt_nyt + "0", "mul", pdt_ny, ms), # Scenario-specific adjustment factors ("pdt factor:n-y-t", "factor_pdt", n, y, t_modes, "config"), # Only the LDV values ( ("ldv pdt factor:n-y", "select", "pdt factor:n-y-t"), dict(indexers=dict(t="LDV"), drop=True), ), (pdt_nyt, "mul", pdt_nyt + "0", "pdt factor:n-y-t"), # Per capita (for validation) (pdt_nyt + "capita+post", "div", pdt_nyt, pop), # LDV PDT only (n, y) ((ldv_ny + "ref", "select", pdt_nyt), dict(indexers=dict(t="LDV"), drop=True)), # commented: The following computes LDV PDT as base-year values from the ADVANCE # database × an index of the top-down (Schäfer) LDV PDT versus base-year values # # Indexed to base year # (ldv_ny + "index", "index_to", ldv_ny + "ref", literal("y"), "y0"), # # Compute LDV PDT as ADVANCE base-year values indexed to overall growth # (ldv_ny + "total+0", "mul", ldv_ny + "index", "pdt ldv:n:advance"), # # Apply the scenario-specific adjustment factor # (ldv_ny + "total", "mul", ldv_ny + "total+0", "ldv pdt factor:n-y"), # # Apply the scenario-specific adjustment factor (ldv_ny + "total", "mul", ldv_ny + "ref", "ldv pdt factor:n-y"), # LDV PDT shared out by consumer group (cg, n, y) (ldv_nycg, "mul", ldv_ny + "total", cg), # # # Base freight activity from IEA EEI # ("iea_eei_fv", "fv:n-y:historical", quote("tonne-kilometres"), "config"), # Base year freight activity from file (n, t), with modes for the 't' dimension ("fv:n-t:historical", "mul", exo.mode_share_freight, exo.activity_freight), # …indexed to base-year values (gdp_index, "index_to", gdp_ppp, literal("y"), "y0"), (fv + "0", "mul", "fv:n-t:historical", gdp_index), # Scenario-specific adjustment factor for freight activity ("fv factor:n-t-y", "factor_fv", n, y, "config"), # Apply the adjustment factor (fv + "1", "mul", fv + "0", "fv factor:n-t-y"), # Select only the ROAD data. NB Do not drop so 't' labels can be used for 'c', next. ((fv + "2", "select", fv + "1"), dict(indexers=dict(t=["ROAD"]))), # Relabel ( (fv_cny, "relabel2", fv + "2"), dict(new_dims={"c": "transport freight {t.lower()}"}), ), # Convert to ixmp format ("t demand freight::ixmp", "as_message_df", fv_cny, *_demand_common), # Select only non-LDV PDT ((pdt_nyt + "1", "select", pdt_nyt), dict(indexers=dict(t=["LDV"]), inverse=True)), # Relabel PDT ( (pdt_cny + "0", "relabel2", pdt_nyt + "1"), dict(new_dims={"c": "transport pax {t.lower()}"}), ), (pdt_cny, "convert_units", pdt_cny + "0", "Gp km / a"), # Convert to ixmp format ("t demand pax non-ldv::ixmp", "as_message_df", pdt_cny, *_demand_common), # Relabel ldv pdt:n-y-cg ((ldv_cny + "0", "relabel2", ldv_nycg), dict(new_dims={"c": "transport pax {cg}"})), (ldv_cny, "convert_units", ldv_cny + "0", "Gp km / a"), ("t demand pax ldv::ixmp", "as_message_df", ldv_cny, *_demand_common), # Dummy demands, if these are configured ("t demand dummy::ixmp", dummy, "c::transport", "nodes::ex world", y, "config"), # Merge all data together ( "transport demand::ixmp", "merge_data", "t demand pax ldv::ixmp", "t demand pax non-ldv::ixmp", "t demand freight::ixmp", "t demand dummy::ixmp", ), ]
[docs]def pdt_per_capita(c: Computer) -> None: """Set up calculation of :data:`~.key.pdt_cap`. Per Schäfer et al. (2009) Figure 2.5: linear interpolation between log GDP PPP per capita and log PDT per capita, specifically between the observed (GDP, PDT) point in |y0| and (:attr:`.Config.fixed_GDP`, :attr:`.Config.fixed_pdt`), which give a future “fixed point” towards which all regions converge. Values from the file :file:`pdt-elasticity.csv` are selected according to :attr:`.Config.ssp <.transport.config.Config.ssp>` and used to scale the difference between projected, log GDP in each future period and the log GDP in the reference year. """ from . import key gdp = KeySeq(key.gdp) pdt = KeySeq("_pdt:n-y") # GDP expressed in PPP. In the SSP(2024) input files, this conversion is already # applied, so no need to multiply by a mer_to_ppp factor here → simple alias. c.add(gdp["PPP"], gdp.base) # GDP PPP per capita c.add(gdp["capita"], "div", gdp["PPP"], pop) # Add `y` dimension. Here for the future fixed point we use y=2 * max(y), e.g. # 4220 for y=2110. The value doesn't matter, we just need to avoid overlap with y # in the model. def _future(qty: "AnyQuantity", years: List[int]) -> "AnyQuantity": return qty.expand_dims(y=[years[-1] * 2]) # Same, but adding y0 c.add(pdt["ref"], lambda q, y: q.expand_dims(y=[y]), "pdt:n:capita+ref", "y0") def _delta(qty: "AnyQuantity", y0: int) -> "AnyQuantity": """Compute slope of `qty` between the last |y|-index and `y0`.""" ym1 = sorted(qty.coords["y"].values)[-1] return qty.sel(y=ym1) - qty.sel(y=y0) # Same transformation for both quantities for x, reference_values in ((gdp, gdp["capita"]), (pdt, pdt["ref"])): # Retrieve value from configuration k = KeySeq(f"{x.name}::fixed") c.add(k[0], "quantity_from_config", "config", name=f"fixed_{x.name.strip('_')}") # Broadcast on `n` dimension c.add(k[1] * "n", "mul", k[0], "n:n:ex world") # Add dimension y=4220 (see _future, above) c.add(x["fixed"], _future, k[1] * "n", "y") # Concatenate with reference values # TODO Ensure units are consistent c.add(x["ext"], "concat", reference_values, x["fixed"]) # Log X c.add(x["log"], np.log, x["ext"]) # Log X indexed to values at y=y0. By construction the values for y=y0 are 1.0. c.add(x[0], "index_to", x["log"], literal("y"), "y0") # Delta log X minus y=y0 value. By construction the values for y=y0 are 0.0. c.add(x[1], "sub", x[0], genno.Quantity(1.0)) # Difference between the fixed point and y0 values # TODO Maybe simplify this. Isn't the slope equal to the fixed-point values # by construction? c.add(x["delta"] / "y", _delta, x[1], "y0") # Compute slope of PDT w.r.t. GDP after transformation c.add("pdt slope:n", "div", pdt["delta"] / "y", gdp["delta"] / "y") # Select 'elasticity' from "pdt elasticity:scenario-n:exo" c.add("pdt elasticity:n", "select", exo.pdt_elasticity, "indexers:scenario") # Adjust GDP by multiplying by 'elasticity' c.add(gdp[2], "mul", gdp[1], "pdt elasticity:n") # Projected PDT = m × adjusted GDP c.add(pdt["proj"], "mul", gdp[2], "pdt slope:n") # Reverse the transform for the adjusted GDP and projected PDT # TODO Derive `units` the inputs, __ and pdt["ref"] for x, start, units in ( (gdp, gdp[2], "kUSD_2017 / passenger / year"), (pdt, pdt["proj"], "km/year"), ): # Reverse transform c.add(x[3], "add", start, genno.Quantity(1.0)) c.add("y::y0", lambda v: dict(y=v), "y0") c.add(x["log"] + "y0", "select", x["log"], "y::y0") c.add(x[4], "mul", x[3], x["log"] + "y0") c.add(x[5], np.exp, x[4]) c.add(x[6], "assign_units", x[5], units=units) # Alias the last step to the target key c.add(pdt_cap, pdt[6]) # Provide a key for the adjusted GDP c.add(gdp_cap + "adj", gdp[6])
[docs]def prepare_computer(c: Computer) -> None: """Prepare `c` to calculate and add transport demand data. See also -------- TASKS """ from . import factor c.apply(pdt_per_capita) # Insert a scaling factor that varies according to SSP setting c.apply(factor.insert, pdt_cap, name="pdt non-active", target=pdt_cap + "adj") c.add_queue(TASKS) c.add("transport_data", __name__, key="transport demand::ixmp")