Energy Foundation China

MESSAGE team has been working with Energy Foundation (China) on the model inter-comparison activities (China Model Intercomparison (CMIN) online database, 8 models in all including global and national models) since 2022.

GCAM, University of Maryland
MESSAGEix, IIASA
REMIND, PIK
DREAM, LBNL
EPS, Energy Innovation
PECE_LIU, Harbin Institute of Technology
TIMES China, Tsinghua University
IPAC-AIM/technology, Zhejiang University of Technology
CNCAP, Tsinghua University

The CMIN database can be accessed at https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/cmin-explorer/#/login. The research uses MESSAGEix-Buildings.

EFC 2022

Project lead: @volker-krey
Lead modeler: @guofei2016

EFC 2023

Project lead: @volker-krey
Lead modeler: @guofei2016

EFC 2024

Project lead: @guofei2016, @volker-krey
Lead modeler: @yiyi1991, @guofei2016, @junukitashepard

Scenario matrix

Cpol_netzero: Current policy efforts through 2030 and extended to 2035, emissions (CO2 FFI) peak year by 2030 at least, net-zero CO2 FFI by 2060 in R12_CHN.
Aclt_netzero: Accelerated policy actions through 2035, key policies are extended or further accelerated in 2030 and to 2035, emissions (CO2 FFI) peak year no later and lower than Cpol_netzero, net-zero CO2 FFI by 2060 in R12_CHN.

Starting scenarios

SSP2 v0.18

Working paper

China’s carbon neutrality pathways with consideration of energy security, a deep dive working paper led by Jun, Yiyi, and Volker. Currently revising for submission as an academic journal article. Link (to be added)

EFC 2025

Project lead: @yiyi1991, @volker-krey
Lead modeler: @yiyi1991, @Tyler-lc

Working paper

Green Synthetic Fuels for Industrial and Transport Applications in China: Policy Assessment and Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways toward 2060, a journal paper and a deep dive working paper led by Luca, Yiyi, and Sid.

The working paper will cover:

the production of hydrogen, methanol, and ammonia by a range of technologies with different energy inputs;
the demand projection of downstream sectors considering the current and near-term policies (industries, vehicles, power, etc.);
the distribution of these fuels at aggregated level and China’s role in the global supply chain.

The results will show the role of green synthetic fuels in China’s decarbonization pathways (e.g., uptake of green synthetic fuels in energy demand sectors, comparison with other mitigation options, investment required, infrastructure required, demand scaling-up levers, policy gaps, etc.), as well as the role of China in the global supply chain of green synthetic fuels (e.g., the role of China in a more general context with an increasing demand for low-carbon transition globally).

Branch

Development branch for EFC 2025 work (to be added)