ELEVATE (JustMIP)

“Enabling and LEVeraging climate Action Towards net-zero Emissions”

Project homepage: https://www.elevate-climate.org/about-the-project

WP2 Evaluation of NDCs and current policies and implications for future post-2030 policies

Scenario matrix

  • ELV-SSP2-650P-400F: first priority a CO2 emissions peak budget of 650 GtCO2 (from 2020 to the time of net zero emissions), next try to reach a full century budget of 400 GtCO2 (from 2020–2100)

  • ELV-SSP2-1150F: CO2 emissions budget of 1,150 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards (peak as well as full century budget)

  • ELV-SSP2-CP-D0: Current Policies with constant carbon price after 2030/2040

  • ELV-SSP2-NDC-D0: NDC with constant carbon price after 2030/2040

  • ELV-SSP2-NDC-LTS: consider the NDC pledges and the long-term strategy pledges (net-zero targets)

  • ELV-SSP2-LTS: countries are on a cost-optimal pathway towards their net-zero targets without the need to meet their NDC pledges in 2030

Starting scenarios

NGFS phase 5 for 1st round submission, SSP2 v0.18 for 2nd round submission,

Final submission will be based on the finalized SSP2 baseline scenarios.

Scenario identifier

(to be added by Spring 2026)

Branch

(on message-data repository, to be migrated to message-ix-models by Spring 2026)

WP4 International governance and policy FASTrack

Scenario matrix

  • Baseline: no import tax

  • National Protectionism: imported emissions are taxed extra, at the same rate as the national carbon price

  • Total Retaliation: imported emissions are taxed extra, at the maximum between the world average carbon price and the national carbon price

  • Green Boost: collected import tax is used recycled as extra investment in green and low carbon energy technologies

  • Technological Autarky: technical learning spillovers is switch off, regions learn only by their own

Starting scenarios

ENGAGE R11 baseline

WP5 Ensuring a just and sustainable transition