Non-Biomass Renewable Resources

Table 5 shows the assumed total potentials of non-biomass renewable energy deployment (by resource type) in the MESSAGE model. In addition, the technical potential estimates are based on different sources, such as the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory database as described in the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [90]). In this context, it is important to note that typical MESSAGE scenarios do not consider the full technical potential of renewable energy resources, but rather only a subset of those potentials, owing to additional constraints (e.g., sustainability criteria, technology diffusion and systems integration issues, and other economic considerations). These constraints may lead to a significant reduction of the technical potential.

Table 5 Assumed global non-biomass renewable energy deployment potentials in the MESSAGE model. Estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [90]) also added for comparison.

Source

MESSAGE

Rogner et al., 2012 [90]

Deployment Potential [EJ/yr]

Technical Potential [EJ/yr]

Hydro

38

50 - 60

Wind (on-/offshore)

689/287

1250 - 2250

Solar PV

6064

62,000 - 280,000

CSP

2132

same as Solar PV above

Geothermal

23

810 - 1400

Notes: MESSAGE renewable energy potentials are estimated based on the methods explained in Pietzcker et al., 2014 [72], Eurek et al., 2017 [13], Christiansson, 1995 [6], and Rogner et al., 2012 [90]. The potentials for non-combustible renewable energy sources are specified in terms of the electricity or heat that can be produced by specific technologies (i.e., from a secondary energy perspective). By contrast, the technical potentials from [90] refer to the flows of energy that could become available as inputs for technology conversion. So for example, the technical potential for wind is given as the kinetic energy available for wind power generation, whereas the deployment potential would only be the electricity that could be generated by the wind turbines.

Regional resource potentials for solar and wind are classified according to resource quality (annual capacity factor) based on Pietzcker et al. (2014, [72]) and Eurek et al. (2017) [13]. Regional resource potentials as implemented into MESSAGE are provided by region and capacity factor for solar PV, concentrating solar power (CSP), and onshore/offshore wind in Johnson et al. (2016, [38]). The physical potential of these sources is assumed to be the same across all SSPs. Table 6, Table 7, Table 8, Table 10 show the resource potential for solar PV, CSP (solar multiples (SM) of 1 & 3), on- and offshore wind respectivey. For wind, Table 9 and Table 11 list the capacity factors corresponding to the wind classes used in the resource tables. It is important to note that part of the resource that is useable at economically competitive costs is assumed to differ widely (see Section Electricity).

Table 6 Resource potential (EJ) by region and capacity factor for solar photovoltaic (PV) technology (Johnson et al., 2016 [38]). For a description of each of the regions represented in the table, see Regions.

By grade

Capacity Factor
(fraction of year)

0.28

0.21

0.20

0.19

0.18

0.17

0.15

0.14

Resource
Potential
(EJ)

AFR

0.0

1.1

46.5

176.6

233.4

218.2

169.9

61.9

CPA

0.0

0.0

0.0

10.3

194.3

315.5

159.4

41.9

EEU

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

1.0

FSU

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

2.8

23.6

94.9

116.6

LAM

0.1

4.9

49.4

165.6

157.5

167.4

81.4

48.5

MEA

0.2

3.1

100.8

533.6

621.8

310.1

75.3

14.5

NAM

0.0

0.3

24.3

140.4

131.0

116.3

155.7

106.4

PAO

0.0

0.0

0.1

2.2

53.1

226.4

311.2

158.9

PAS

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.8

17.0

31.2

12.8

SAS

0.0

0.0

6.1

42.7

67.2

82.3

23.7

4.1

WEU

0.0

0.1

0.2

3.0

12.8

39.4

58.3

33.3

Global

0.3

9.6

227.4

1074.7

1474.6

1516.3

1160.9

600.0

Table 7 Resource potential (EJ) by region and capacity factor for concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies with solar multiples (SM) of 1 and 3 (Johnson et al., 2016 [38]).

By grade

Capacity
Factor
(fraction
of year)

SM1

0.27

0.25

0.23

0.22

0.20

0.18

0.17

0.15

SM3

0.75

0.68

0.64

0.59

0.55

0.50

0.46

0.41

Resource
Potential
(EJ)

AFR

0.0

3.6

19.0

81.6

106.7

62.8

59.6

37.8

CPA

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

11.5

53.0

EEU

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

FSU

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.4

6.1

LAM

0.0

2.0

7.0

11.8

29.3

57.1

56.8

53.5

MEA

0.1

3.7

24.8

122.4

155.3

144.5

68.4

34.0

NAM

0.0

0.0

0.0

6.3

19.7

20.2

29.6

43.2

PAO

0.0

3.0

75.1

326.9

158.3

140.4

40.2

10.2

PAS

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.6

SAS

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

3.9

8.7

16.1

9.8

WEU

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.7

2.4

3.0

Global

0.1

12.3

126.0

549.2

473.3

434.8

285.0

251.3

Table 8 Resource potential (EJ) by region and wind class for onshore wind (Johnson et al., 2016 [38]).

Wind Class

3

4

5

6

7

8+

AFR

38.2

21.3

13.4

6.8

2.6

2.1

CPA

24.7

11.4

5.4

2.6

0.3

0.0

EEU

6.1

5.7

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

FSU

52.3

83.8

5.8

0.8

0.0

0.0

LAM

33.5

15.9

9.6

5.7

3.9

3.7

MEA

56.1

22.2

6.0

2.1

0.9

0.3

NAM

28.6

66.4

23.7

1.5

0.4

0.0

PAO

18.9

18.8

3.6

1.4

1.8

0.5

PAS

5.2

2.9

0.8

0.2

0.0

0.0

SAS

12.3

7.9

2.4

1.6

0.9

0.3

WEU

16.1

10.5

6.6

8.2

3.7

0.6

World

292.1

266.8

77.5

30.9

14.3

7.5

Table 9 Capacity factor by region and wind class for onshore wind (Johnson et al., 2016 [38]).

Wind Class

3

4

5

6

7

8+

AFR

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.45

CPA

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.38

0.45

EEU

0.24

0.27

0.31

0.36

0.38

0.45

FSU

0.24

0.28

0.31

0.35

0.38

0.45

LAM

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.39

0.46

MEA

0.24

0.27

0.32

0.35

0.39

0.45

NAM

0.24

0.28

0.31

0.36

0.39

0.45

PAO

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.43

PAS

0.24

0.27

0.32

0.35

0.40

0.45

SAS

0.24

0.27

0.32

0.36

0.39

0.42

WEU

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.39

0.43

Table 10 Resource potential (EJ) by region and wind class for offshore wind (Johnson et al., 2016 [38]).

Wind Class

3

4

5

6

7

8+

AFR

3.1

2.4

2.0

2.0

1.1

1.7

CPA

3.5

4.3

2.6

0.9

1.3

0.1

EEU

0.7

0.6

1.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

FSU

1.8

4.6

14.2

13.3

4.3

0.7

LAM

7.1

7.3

5.3

2.7

2.6

5.9

MEA

3.2

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.6

0.9

NAM

4.5

18.2

24.0

16.0

7.3

2.1

PAO

5.8

11.2

15.3

9.8

2.6

2.5

PAS

5.3

6.6

4.7

1.5

0.1

0.0

SAS

1.9

0.9

0.6

0.5

0.0

0.0

WEU

3.5

4.7

8.8

12.9

10.3

0.9

World

40.4

61.5

79.4

60.5

30.3

14.8

Table 11 Capacity factor by region and wind class for offshore wind (Johnson et al., 2016 [38]).

Wind class

3

4

5

6

7

8+

AFR

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.41

0.47

CPA

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.42

EEU

0.24

0.29

0.32

0.34

0.40

0.42

FSU

0.25

0.28

0.32

0.35

0.39

0.43

LAM

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.49

MEA

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.45

NAM

0.25

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.43

PAO

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.47

PAS

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.35

0.39

0.42

SAS

0.24

0.27

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.42

WEU

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.42