Energy demand¶
Baseline energy service demands are provided exogenously to MESSAGEix, though they can be adjusted endogenously based on energy prices using the MESSAGEix-MACRO link. There are seven energy service demands that are provided to MESSAGEix, including:
Residential/commercial thermal
Residential/commercial specific
Industrial thermal
Industrial specific
Industrial feedstock (non-energy)
Transportation
Non-commercial biomass.
These demands are generated using a so-called scenario generator which is implemented in the script language R. The scenario generator relates historical country-level GDP per capita (PPP) to final energy and, using projections of GDP (PPP) and population, extrapolate the seven energy service demands into the future. The sources for the historical and projected datasets are the following:
Historical GDP (PPP) – World Bank (World Development Indicators, 2012 [117])
Historical Population – UN Population Division (World Population Projection, 2010 [10])
Historical Final Energy – International Energy Agency Energy Balances (IEA, 2012 [1])
Projected GDP (PPP) – Dellink et al. (2015) [9], also see Shared Socio-Economic Pathways database (SSP scenarios)
Projected Population – KC and Lutz (2014) [40], also see Shared Socio-Economic Pathways database (SSP scenarios)
The scenario generator runs regressions on the historical datasets to establish the relationship for each of the eleven MESSAGEix regions between the independent variable (GDP (PPP) per capita) and the following dependent variables:
Total final energy intensity (MJ/2005USD)
Shares of final energy among several energy end-use sectors (transport, residential/commercial and industry)
Shares of electricity use between the industrial and residential/commercial sectors.
In the case of final energy intensity, the relationship is best modeled by a power function so both variables are log-transformed. In the case of most sectoral shares, only the independent variable is log-transformed. The exception is the industrial share of final energy, which uses a hump-shaped function inspired by Schafer (2005) [98].
In parallel, the same historical data are used, now globally, in quantile regressions to develop global trend lines that represent each percentile of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of each dependent variable. Given the regional regressions and global trend lines, final energy intensity and sectoral shares can be extrapolated based on projected GDP per capita, or average income.
A basic assumption here is that the regional trends derived above will converge to certain quantiles of the global trend when each region reaches a certain income level. Hence, two key user-defined inputs allow users to tailor the extrapolations to individual socio-economic scenarios: convergence quantile and the corresponding income. In the case of final energy intensity (FEI), the extrapolation is produced for each region by defining the quantile at which FEI converges (e.g., the 20th percentile within the global trend) and the income at which the convergence occurs. For example, while final energy intensity converges quickly to the lowest quantile (0.001) in SSP1, it converges more slowly to a larger quantile (0.5 to 0.7 depending on the region) in SSP3. Convergence quantiles and incomes are provided for each SSP and region in Table 21, Table 22, Table 23. The convergence quantile allows one to identify the magnitude of FEI while the convergence income establishes the rate at which the quantile is approached. For the sectoral shares, users can specify the global quantile at which the extrapolation should converge, the income at which the extrapolation diverges from the regional regression line and turns parallel to the specified convergence quantile (i.e., how long the sectoral share follows the historical trajectory), and the income at which the extrapolation converges to the quantile. Given these input parameters, users can extrapolate both FEI and sectoral shares.
The total final energy in each region is then calculated by multiplying the extrapolated final energy intensity by the projected GDP (PPP) in each time period. Next, the extrapolated shares are multiplied by the total final energy to identify final energy demand for each of the seven energy service demands used in MESSAGE. Finally, final energy is converted to useful energy in each region by using the average final-to-useful energy efficiencies used in the MESSAGE model for each model region (Regions).
SSP1 |
AFR |
CPA |
EEU |
FSU |
LAM |
MEA |
NAM |
PAO |
PAS |
SAS |
WEU |
Convergence Quantile |
|||||||||||
Final Energy Intensity (FEI) |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
Share NC Biomass |
0.01 |
0.25 |
0.01 |
0.75 |
0.01 |
0.3 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
Share Transport |
0.05 |
0.02 |
0.2 |
0.05 |
0.2 |
0.05 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.2 |
Share Res/Com |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.28 |
0.3 |
0.25 |
0.2 |
0.28 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
Share Industry |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.28 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.28 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
Elec Share Res/Com |
0.45 |
0.45 |
0.45 |
0.45 |
0.63 |
0.62 |
0.4 |
0.63 |
0.62 |
0.64 |
0.43 |
Feedstock Share Industry |
0.18 |
0.2 |
0.24 |
0.24 |
0.2 |
0.26 |
0.26 |
0.23 |
0.26 |
0.22 |
0.24 |
Elec Share Industry |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.42 |
0.36 |
0.4 |
0.33 |
0.36 |
0.36 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
Convergence Income |
|||||||||||
Final Energy Intensity (FEI) |
112295 |
98603 |
299177 |
112307 |
100188 |
113404 |
112356 |
112261 |
106323 |
112300 |
107636 |
Share NC Biomass |
5981 |
46015 |
34405 |
40951 |
20038 |
34894 |
112356 |
112261 |
16357 |
11105 |
48153 |
Share Transport |
99676 |
32868 |
112341 |
71664 |
112310 |
113404 |
123018 |
94337 |
112293 |
97169 |
141627 |
Share Res/Com |
119611 |
112276 |
179506 |
153565 |
112310 |
112270 |
123018 |
157229 |
112293 |
112300 |
141627 |
Share Industry |
39870 |
105177 |
164547 |
92139 |
40075 |
112270 |
123018 |
112261 |
126769 |
83288 |
127464 |
Elec Share Res/Com |
112295 |
112276 |
112341 |
112307 |
112310 |
87234 |
131219 |
132072 |
112293 |
112300 |
112168 |
Feedstock Share Industry |
112295 |
112276 |
112341 |
112307 |
112310 |
112270 |
123018 |
125783 |
112293 |
112300 |
112168 |
Elec Share Industry |
112295 |
98603 |
299177 |
112307 |
100188 |
113404 |
112356 |
112261 |
106323 |
112300 |
107636 |
SSP2 |
AFR |
CPA |
EEU |
FSU |
LAM |
MEA |
NAM |
PAO |
PAS |
SAS |
WEU |
Convergence Quantile |
|||||||||||
Final Energy Intensity (FEI) |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
0.02 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
Share NC Biomass |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
0.25 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.75 |
Share Transport |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.15 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.14 |
0.2 |
0.05 |
0.15 |
Share Res/Com |
0.15 |
0.28 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.35 |
0.3 |
0.28 |
0.33 |
Share Industry |
0.25 |
0.4 |
0.15 |
0.25 |
0.15 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.6 |
0.25 |
Elec Share Res/Com |
0.42 |
0.4 |
0.35 |
0.22 |
0.58 |
0.6 |
0.14 |
0.57 |
0.6 |
0.51 |
0.18 |
Feedstock Share Industry |
0.15 |
0.22 |
0.26 |
0.26 |
0.18 |
0.27 |
0.32 |
0.27 |
0.3 |
0.22 |
0.27 |
Elec Share Industry |
0.39 |
0.38 |
0.4 |
0.45 |
0.35 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.43 |
0.35 |
Convergence Income |
|||||||||||
Final Energy Intensity (FEI) |
200009 |
200033 |
299177 |
266179 |
199975 |
139574 |
246036 |
141506 |
199968 |
200002 |
199977 |
Share NC Biomass |
19935 |
26294 |
77786 |
40951 |
20038 |
94649 |
94724 |
132072 |
12268 |
18046 |
48153 |
Share Transport |
49838 |
105177 |
94540 |
94596 |
80150 |
94649 |
94724 |
94652 |
81787 |
27763 |
99139 |
Share Res/Com |
119611 |
65735 |
89753 |
71664 |
94577 |
69787 |
94724 |
110060 |
81787 |
83288 |
113301 |
Share Industry |
31896 |
105177 |
44877 |
102377 |
100188 |
78511 |
94724 |
141506 |
98144 |
13881 |
94607 |
Elec Share Res/Com |
69773 |
94593 |
94540 |
102377 |
94577 |
87234 |
123018 |
141506 |
94627 |
55525 |
113301 |
Feedstock Share Industry |
19935 |
94593 |
94540 |
94596 |
94577 |
94649 |
94724 |
94652 |
94627 |
94615 |
94607 |
Elec Share Industry |
200009 |
200033 |
299177 |
266179 |
199975 |
139574 |
246036 |
141506 |
199968 |
200002 |
199977 |
SSP3 |
AFR |
CPA |
EEU |
FSU |
LAM |
MEA |
NAM |
PAO |
PAS |
SAS |
WEU |
Convergence Quantile |
|||||||||||
Final Energy Intensity (FEI) |
0.6 |
0.55 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
Share NC Biomass |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
0.25 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
0.75 |
Share Transport |
0.1 |
0.05 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.45 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.25 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
Share Res/Com |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.55 |
0.55 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.35 |
0.6 |
0.25 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
Share Industry |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
Elec Share Res/Com |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.45 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.25 |
0.65 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.33 |
Feedstock Share Industry |
0.2 |
0.22 |
0.26 |
0.24 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.32 |
0.29 |
0.3 |
0.22 |
0.27 |
Elec Share Industry |
0.3 |
0.43 |
0.37 |
0.45 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.35 |
0.45 |
0.4 |
0.35 |
0.4 |
Convergence Income |
|||||||||||
Final Energy Intensity (FEI) |
200009 |
200033 |
200000 |
200044 |
199975 |
200027 |
200109 |
199995 |
199968 |
200002 |
199977 |
Share NC Biomass |
13955 |
26294 |
80927 |
40951 |
12023 |
80953 |
80782 |
132072 |
12268 |
12771 |
48153 |
Share Transport |
13955 |
46015 |
59835 |
51188 |
70131 |
69787 |
80782 |
132072 |
32715 |
55525 |
81010 |
Share Res/Com |
23922 |
65735 |
59835 |
61426 |
80952 |
52340 |
80782 |
80816 |
199968 |
80512 |
81010 |
Share Industry |
5981 |
52588 |
200000 |
122852 |
18034 |
43617 |
200109 |
199995 |
81787 |
30539 |
198277 |
Elec Share Res/Com |
80976 |
80986 |
80927 |
61426 |
80952 |
69787 |
80782 |
80816 |
80969 |
80956 |
81010 |
Feedstock Share Industry |
19935 |
26294 |
80927 |
80980 |
80952 |
80953 |
80782 |
80816 |
80969 |
80956 |
81010 |
Elec Share Industry |
200009 |
200033 |
200000 |
200044 |
199975 |
200027 |
200109 |
199995 |
199968 |
200002 |
199977 |