.. _renewable:
Non-Biomass Renewable Resources
================================
:numref:`tab-depl` shows the assumed total potentials of non-biomass renewable energy deployment (by resource type) in the MESSAGE model. In addition, the technical potential estimates are based on different sources,
such as the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory `database <https://www.nrel.gov/grid/data-tools.html>`_ as described in the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 :cite:`rogner_chapter_2012`).
In this context, it is important to note that typical MESSAGE
scenarios do not consider the full technical potential of renewable energy resources, but rather only a subset of those potentials, owing to additional constraints (e.g., sustainability
criteria, technology diffusion and systems integration issues, and other economic considerations). These constraints may lead to a significant reduction of the technical potential.
.. _tab-depl:
.. list-table:: Assumed global non-biomass renewable energy deployment potentials in the MESSAGE model. Estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 :cite:`rogner_chapter_2012`) also added for comparison.
:widths: 20 30 30
:header-rows: 2
* - Source
- MESSAGE
- Rogner et al., 2012 :cite:`rogner_chapter_2012`
* -
- Deployment Potential [EJ/yr]
- Technical Potential [EJ/yr]
* - Hydro
- 38
- 50 - 60
* - Wind (on-/offshore)
- 689/287
- 1250 - 2250
* - Solar PV
- 6064
- 62,000 - 280,000
* - CSP
- 2132
- same as Solar PV above
* - Geothermal
- 23
- 810 - 1400
*Notes: MESSAGE renewable energy potentials are estimated based on the methods explained in* Pietzcker et al., 2014 :cite:`pietzcker_solar_2014`, Eurek et al., 2017 :cite:`eurek_wind_2017`,
Christiansson, 1995 :cite:`christiansson_diffusion_1995`, *and* Rogner et al., 2012 :cite:`rogner_chapter_2012`. *The potentials for non-combustible renewable energy sources are specified
in terms of the electricity or heat that can be produced by specific technologies (i.e., from a secondary energy perspective). By contrast, the technical potentials from* :cite:`rogner_chapter_2012`
*refer to the flows of energy that could become available as inputs for technology conversion. So for example, the technical potential for wind is given as the kinetic energy available for wind power
generation, whereas the deployment potential would only be the electricity that could be generated by the wind turbines.*
Regional resource potentials for solar and wind are classified according to resource quality (annual capacity factor) based on Pietzcker et al. (2014, :cite:`pietzcker_solar_2014`) and
Eurek et al. (2017) :cite:`eurek_wind_2017`. Regional resource potentials as implemented into MESSAGE are provided by region and capacity factor for solar PV, concentrating solar
power (CSP), and onshore/offshore wind in Johnson et al. (2016, :cite:`johnson_vre_2016`). The physical potential of these sources is assumed to be the same across all SSPs.
:numref:`tab-pv`, :numref:`tab-csp`, :numref:`tab-onshorewind`, :numref:`tab-offshorewind` show the resource potential for solar PV, CSP (solar multiples (SM) of 1 & 3), on- and offshore wind respectivey. For wind,
:numref:`tab-capfactonshore` and :numref:`tab-capfactoffshore` list the capacity factors corresponding to the wind classes used in the resource tables. It is important to note that part of
the resource that is useable at economically competitive costs is assumed to differ widely (see Section :ref:`electricity`).
.. _tab-pv:
.. table:: Resource potential (EJ) by region and capacity factor for solar photovoltaic (PV) technology (Johnson et al., 2016 :cite:`johnson_vre_2016`). For a description of each of the regions represented in the table, see :ref:`spatial`.
+-----------+----------+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| | |
| | **By grade** |
| | |
+-----------+----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | Capacity Factor | | | | | | | | |
| | (fraction of year) |**0.28**|**0.21**|**0.20** |**0.19** | **0.18** | **0.17** | **0.15** | **0.14**|
| | | | | | | | | |
+-----------+----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | AFR | 0.0 | 1.1 | 46.5 | 176.6 | 233.4 | 218.2 | 169.9 | 61.9 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | CPA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.3 | 194.3 | 315.5 | 159.4 | 41.9 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | EEU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | FSU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 23.6 | 94.9 | 116.6 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | LAM | 0.1 | 4.9 | 49.4 | 165.6 | 157.5 | 167.4 | 81.4 | 48.5 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+| Resource | MEA | 0.2 | 3.1 | 100.8 | 533.6 | 621.8 | 310.1 | 75.3 | 14.5 |
|| Potential+----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
|| (EJ) | | | | | | | | | |
| | NAM | 0.0 | 0.3 | 24.3 | 140.4 | 131.0 | 116.3 | 155.7 | 106.4 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | PAO | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 53.1 | 226.4 | 311.2 | 158.9 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | PAS | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 17.0 | 31.2 | 12.8 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | SAS | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 42.7 | 67.2 | 82.3 | 23.7 | 4.1 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | WEU | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 12.8 | 39.4 | 58.3 | 33.3 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | Global | 0.3 | 9.6 | 227.4 | 1074.7 | 1474.6 | 1516.3 | 1160.9 | 600.0 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+-----------+----------+--------+--------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+---------+
.. _tab-csp:
.. table:: Resource potential (EJ) by region and capacity factor for concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies with solar multiples (SM) of 1 and 3 (Johnson et al., 2016 :cite:`johnson_vre_2016`).
+--------------+----------+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| | |
| | **By grade** |
| | |
+--------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | Capacity | | | | | | | | | |
| | Factor | **SM1** | **0.27** | **0.25** | **0.23** | **0.22** | **0.20** | **0.18** | **0.17** | **0.15** |
| | (fraction | | | | | | | | | |
+ | of year) +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | **SM3** | **0.75** | **0.68** | **0.64** | **0.59** | **0.55** | **0.50** | **0.46** | **0.41** |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+--------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | AFR | 0.0 | 3.6 | 19.0 | 81.6 | 106.7 | 62.8 | 59.6 | 37.8 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | CPA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 11.5 | 53.0 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | EEU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | FSU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 6.1 |
+| Resource | | | | | | | | | |
|| Potential +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|| (EJ) | | | | | | | | | |
| | LAM | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 11.8 | 29.3 | 57.1 | 56.8 | 53.5 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | MEA | 0.1 | 3.7 | 24.8 | 122.4 | 155.3 | 144.5 | 68.4 | 34.0 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | NAM | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 19.7 | 20.2 | 29.6 | 43.2 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | PAO | 0.0 | 3.0 | 75.1 | 326.9 | 158.3 | 140.4 | 40.2 | 10.2 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | PAS | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | SAS | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 16.1 | 9.8 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | WEU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+ +----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | Global | 0.1 | 12.3 | 126.0 | 549.2 | 473.3 | 434.8 | 285.0 | 251.3 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
+--------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
.. _tab-onshorewind:
.. table:: Resource potential (EJ) by region and wind class for onshore wind (Johnson et al., 2016 :cite:`johnson_vre_2016`).
+---------+-------------------------------------------------------+
| | |
| | **Wind Class** |
| | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| | **3** | **4** | **5** | **6** | **7** | **8+** |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| AFR | 38.2 | 21.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| CPA | 24.7 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| EEU | 6.1 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| FSU | 52.3 | 83.8 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| LAM | 33.5 | 15.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| MEA | 56.1 | 22.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| NAM | 28.6 | 66.4 | 23.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| PAO | 18.9 | 18.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| PAS | 5.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| SAS | 12.3 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| WEU | 16.1 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 0.6 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| World | 292.1 | 266.8 | 77.5 | 30.9 | 14.3 | 7.5 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
.. _tab-capfactonshore:
.. table:: Capacity factor by region and wind class for onshore wind (Johnson et al., 2016 :cite:`johnson_vre_2016`).
+-------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| | |
| | **Wind Class** |
| | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| | **3** | **4** | **5** | **6** | **7** | **8+** |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| AFR | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| CPA | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| EEU | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| FSU | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| LAM | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| MEA | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| NAM | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| PAO | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| PAS | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| SAS | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| WEU | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| | | | | | | |
+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
.. _tab-offshorewind:
.. table:: Resource potential (EJ) by region and wind class for offshore wind (Johnson et al., 2016 :cite:`johnson_vre_2016`).
+---------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| | |
| | **Wind Class** |
| | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| | **3** | **4** | **5** | **6** | **7** | **8+** |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| AFR | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| CPA | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| EEU | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| FSU | 1.8 | 4.6 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 4.3 | 0.7 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| LAM | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 5.9 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| MEA | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| NAM | 4.5 | 18.2 | 24.0 | 16.0 | 7.3 | 2.1 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| PAO | 5.8 | 11.2 | 15.3 | 9.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| PAS | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| SAS | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| WEU | 3.5 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 0.9 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| World | 40.4 | 61.5 | 79.4 | 60.5 | 30.3 | 14.8 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
.. _tab-capfactoffshore:
.. table:: Capacity factor by region and wind class for offshore wind (Johnson et al., 2016 :cite:`johnson_vre_2016`).
+---------+-----------------------------------------------------+
| | |
| | **Wind class** |
| | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| | **3** | **4** | **5** | **6** | **7** | **8+** |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| AFR | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| CPA | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| EEU | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| FSU | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| LAM | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| MEA | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| NAM | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| PAO | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| PAS | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| SAS | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | | | | | | |
| WEU | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| | | | | | | |
+---------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+